COVID’s Impact on UK Admissions Trends in 2021

The last and current admissions cycles have been challenging for applicants due to the disruption and uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

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UK admissions 101

To understand all this, first let’s just break down how UK admissions usually works.

Everything in the process is important in UK admissions, and it’s very academically focused. Universities will assess your application through your prior & predicted grades, personal statement, school reference, and, if used, any admissions tests, submitted work, and interviews.

Most UK offers are made before you finish school, and therefore will be conditional on your final grades. Your predicted grades are mainly used as an initial viability check of your application, but are usually expected to be a little aspirational, i.e. not all students are expected to achieve all their predicted grades, so not all offer-holders will necessarily achieve their offers. Universities plan for this, and can predict what proportion of their offers won’t be met, so usually over-offer by about this proportion. They can also predict, if they are a student’s insurance choice, how likely the student would be to miss their 1st choice offer and come to them instead!

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The impact of COVID for 2020 entry

So what happened to admissions for 2020-entry?

Everything was going smoothly for the first part of the admissions process, so most students already had their offers by around February.

Then… COVID hit the UK.

Schools were closed, exams were cancelled, and grades ended up being awarded mainly on the basis of predicted grades. This meant that almost all students achieved their predictions, and therefore almost all offers were met.

Of course, universities had to honour their offers, but this meant that many had to accept far more students than usual, as they typically over-offer to mitigate for missed offers.

For example, according to UCAS, UCL took 32% more students in 2020 than in 2019. Oversubscription can be a serious problem for fitting students into courses, facilities, and most crucially, accommodation.

Oxford and Cambridge only saw an increase of about 5-10%, but this was still a huge problem for them. They provide accommodation for students across all or most years of their degree, and specifically within each student’s college, so there is very little flexibility on the number of students they can accommodate. Also as Oxbridge is usually students’ first choice, they will be hit even harder by grade inflation.

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Trends & insights on 2021 entry

Before we even factor in COVID, we know that application numbers are the highest ever for 2021 entry.

Assuming places aren’t increasing at the same rate as the demand, this means that competition rates will be up, and offer rates will be down - things are already more challenging than ever.

We can also predict that this is likely to be amplified for the most competitive universities and courses, who receive a higher proportion of applications, and may also have less flexibility to increase places.

Exams have once again been cancelled, which means students will be awarded teacher-assessed grades.

Unlike 2020, universities were prepared for this from the start of the admissions cycle, and this is being reflected in admissions outcomes. Universities are being very cautious in their offer-making to prevent oversubscription, and in some cases to mitigate last years’ oversubscription. This has meant there have been fewer offers made, particularly by the most competitive universities. Students have also had a longer wait on offer decisions, which is partly due to the operational disruption of COVID and the very high application numbers to process. However it is also likely universities are waiting on whether the first waves of offers are accepted or rejected before proceeding to following waves. Some universities have even introduced informal waitlists.

The impact of all this is certainly being seen in Oxbridge admissions.

Oxford offers are down 9% this year, Cambridge 10%, in anticipation of high levels of offers being achieved from teacher-assessed grades. Cambridge have even added an oversubscription clause into their offers - this does not mean offers would be withdrawn, but that students might be offered voluntary deferral or a different college.

Fewer Oxbridge offers has then amplified the situation for universities that are common insurance choices for Oxbridge applicants, who now need to factor in a higher offer acceptance rate from students who might otherwise have got into Oxbridge, which again will be making them even more cautious in making offers. It is an exceptionally tough year for students applying to the G5 and Russell Group universities as well.

Naturally, we do not yet have the data on this admissions cycle, but it would be reasonable to predict that there may have been fewer offers to international students from Oxbridge this year. This is partly due to the overall decreased offers, but may have been further exacerbated by risk-aversion, whether conscious or unconscious. Oxford colleges have a careful balance between neither being oversubscribed (and not having enough rooms) nor being undersubcribed (and not making enough money).

Given that offers this year will be close to the exact number of places, they want to be very certain offers will be accepted. International students are seen as more ‘risky’, as they may decline their offer in favour of home or other overseas options, or choose not to come over Covid concerns.

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How can you prepare?

It’s possible there will be more leniency for extenuating circumstances and disruptions, but applicants will still be fighting higher competition so need to do more to stand out, maximising both their academic and supercurricular profiles to be competitive.

Here are my top tips:

• Use careful strategy in university and course choices to optimise success - consider that competition rates will be higher than usual.
• Do the best you can academically, even if school & exams are disrupted - think about how you can best demonstrate your abilities to your teachers, or seek other forms of academic achievement.
• Develop an impressive supercurricular profile, & if COVID restrictions have stopped you doing something, find something you CAN do.
• Make your personal statement stand out - reflect on your insights from your experiences.
• Admissions tests will be more important than ever - prepare well and perfect your exam technique, and check these out early so you can plan your preparation.
• Interviews are another way to show your interests, skills, & abilities, so are all the more important this year when this is more challenging in the rest of your application. Familiarise yourself with what they’re like so you can feel comfortable and confident with the real thing, and again find out early how you can best prepare and develop your thinking skills. For more interview insights and tips, check out my podcast!

Of course, COVID isn’t the only factor disrupting your future admission to university, so stay tuned for our next blog post impact of Brexit and the future of UK admissions!

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Author

Hannah Rowberry, UK Strategy Consultant